Where are people moving in the UK
David Jones
03/05/2021
UK Housing Trends During the Pandemic
This report details the variation in housing sales between January 2020 and March 2021. Analysis is performed on information on all residential sales available from the UK land registry price paid data set.
Total Supply and Demand
The total number of sales per month has been collapsing since a peak October 2020, 70,000 sales to a just over a thousand in March 2021. Meanwhile the average price paid has shown an increase from an average of around 330k to just shy of 390k. 
Within this overall picture of increasing demand and reducing supply, one category of housing bucks the trend. Flats - including housing options such as apartments, studios, etc. show a flat average price over the same period while all discrete housing types - detached, semi-detached and terraced have all been met with steady increases. Buyers then appear to be valuing the additional space available with these types over the usual value proposition of a flat. The prices of flats have actually converged to the price for semi-detached houses whereas previously they were generally more expensive.
High-level Geographic Trends
Geographical changes will be compared to a linear regression of all property values across the country. Such a regression reveals that the average property in england and wales is increasing in value by £145 per day. knowing this it is possible to show which regions are increasing above and below this average by performing the same analysis on each region. The increase above the national average will then be used as an indicator for where people are preferentially moving.
Central London has seen the biggest negative divergence from the national average. In particular the postcode area of WC covering Westminster and Camden. The south west of england has been the biggest beneficiary of movement, the south-east also generally increasing in price above the national average.
| Area | £/day Above National |
|---|---|
| NW | 375 |
| W | 230 |
| AL | 156 |
| N | 153 |
| WD | 147 |
| RH | 144 |
| HA | 125 |
| KT | 124 |
| GU | 115 |
| RG | 114 |
When viewing percentage increases February 2021 compared to February 2020 the situation becomes slightly different. London again appears to be on the decline as well as numerous postcodes areas around London. It is almost possible to draw a distinct divide from Swindon to Skegness, on the West property prices are increasing with a corresponding decrease on the east. The Chester area saw the biggest increase followed by Harrogate, possibly due to people moving away from Manchester.
| Area | % Above National |
|---|---|
| CH | 33 |
| HG | 31 |
| WA | 28 |
| DE | 17 |
| DT | 16 |
| BN | 15 |
| NG | 13 |
| GL | 12 |
| L | 12 |
| OL | 9 |
Top performing areas
Two postcode areas; CH (Chester) and HG (Harrogate) show that the increase is not universal when looking at individual postcode districts. The is a huge variety of house prices within the areas themselves. The trend of lower demand in cities is exemplified in the HG area with the urban areas - HG1 and HG2 - showing a marked decrease in value while the suburban parts of HG3 and HG5 markedly increasing.
London
Finally turning attention to London which has apparently born the brunt of movement during the pandemic. Looking at the data presented above it appears that people are leaving in droves because it is the biggest city. However, breaking the figures down by residential type reveals a slightly different picture.
Those areas where the avaerage price is falling by the greatest amount Eastern Central (EC) and Western Central (WC) are those areas where Flats make up almost all the housing stock. 
